IntelligenceComparisonServicesCase StudiesExpertiseKnowledgeAbout
Case Studies

See what it predicted.

Real intelligence from real enforcement campaigns. Every prediction made before the outcome was known. Every result verified against the public record.

25 / 28Total predictions correct
4Campaigns verified
3SEP holders tested
2010–2024Period covered

How we back-test

Freeze the model at a point in time. Generate predictions using only historical data. Then compare against what actually happened.

01

Freeze

Lock the model at a date before the campaign started. No future data leaks.

02

Predict

Generate intelligence brief from historical patterns. Settlement probability, duration, venue ranking, defendant behaviour.

03

Verify

Compare every prediction against the known outcome. Grade each dimension as correct, partial, or missed.

Four campaigns. Four verdicts.

Two campaigns where the data said proceed. One where it said stop. One that simulated the FRAND rate before the jury decided. The platform predicted all four correctly.

01European Multi-Jurisdiction SEP

Nokia v OPPO

SEP Enforcement Campaign Feasibility

Data freeze: 30 June 2021 · July 2021 to January 2024, 2 years 6 months

Nokia's largest active SEP enforcement campaign. 14 patents asserted across 24+ jurisdictions against the entire BBK Electronics group. We froze the model at June 2021, before Nokia filed, and predicted what would happen.

Read the full brief & scorecard→
6 / 6Predictions correct
Chinese OEM cases analysed559
Nokia patents mapped66,301
UK SEP precedents58
02US FRAND Rate Trial

Ericsson v TCL

SEP Licensing Enforcement, US Litigation

Data freeze: 31 December 2013 · June 2014 to December 2019, 5 years 6 months

A US-centric SEP enforcement campaign that went all the way to jury trial and CAFC appeal. We froze the model at December 2013 and predicted TCL would fight, because without a counter-portfolio, fighting is the only rational strategy.

Read the full brief & scorecard→
7 / 8Predictions correct
Ericsson patents86,465
E.D. Texas cases analysed6,590
TCL counter-patents0
03When the Data Says Don't Sue

Motorola v Microsoft

H.264 and WiFi SEP Licensing Enforcement

Data freeze: 30 September 2010 · November 2010 to circa 2015, ~4.5 years

The most important back-test. It proves the platform can predict failure, not just success. The data showed a 4:1 patent ratio favouring Microsoft and warned Motorola not to demand an aggressive rate. Motorola demanded 2.25%. The court set the rate at $0.0555. A 97.5% reduction.

Read the full brief & scorecard→
7 / 8Predictions correct
Motorola patents27,330
Microsoft patents107,772
Portfolio ratio (defendant favoured)4:1
04FRAND Rate Simulation

Ericsson v D-Link

WiFi 802.11n SEP Pricing Prediction

Data freeze: 1 September 2010 · September 2010 to December 2014, 4.2 years

An out-of-sample FRAND rate prediction. The platform predicted a WiFi per-unit rate of $0.094 to $0.300 before the case went to trial. The jury awarded $0.15 per device, landing at the 35th percentile of the predicted range. The Federal Circuit later vacated the damages, consistent with the platform flagging E.D. Texas as producing above-median FRAND rates.

Read the full brief & scorecard→
5 / 6Predictions correct
Jury rate per device$0.15
Our predicted range$0.094–$0.300
Where actual landed35th %ile
Cross-Reference

Same platform. Different dynamics. Correct every time.

SEP holderNokia v OPPO: Nokia (66K patents)Ericsson v TCL: Ericsson (86K patents)Motorola v Microsoft: Motorola (27K patents)Ericsson v D-Link: Ericsson (86K patents)
DefendantNokia v OPPO: OPPO (0 counter-patents)Ericsson v TCL: TCL (0 counter-patents)Motorola v Microsoft: Microsoft (107K patents)Ericsson v D-Link: D-Link + 5 others (WiFi)
JurisdictionNokia v OPPO: European multi-courtEricsson v TCL: US (E.D. Texas / C.D. Cal)Motorola v Microsoft: US multi-district + UKEricsson v D-Link: US (E.D. Texas)
OutcomeNokia v OPPO: SEP holder winsEricsson v TCL: SEP holder wins ($75M verdict)Motorola v Microsoft: SEP holder loses (rate crushed 97.5%)Ericsson v D-Link: $10.1M verdict, vacated by CAFC
Predictions correctNokia v OPPO: 6/6Ericsson v TCL: 7/8Motorola v Microsoft: 7/8Ericsson v D-Link: 5/6
Key insightNokia v OPPO: Chinese OEMs fight but settle after injunctionsEricsson v TCL: No counter-portfolio = no settlement leverageMotorola v Microsoft: 4:1 portfolio ratio favours defendantEricsson v D-Link: FRAND rate simulation within range, E.D. Texas rates don't survive appeal

Run it on your portfolio.

We generate this level of intelligence for your patents, your targets, your enforcement campaign.

Book a Call

Reader Tools

No notes yet

Select text anywhere and click
"Save" to add research notes