Ericsson v D-Link
WiFi 802.11n SEP Pricing Prediction
Ericsson Inc. v D-Link Systems Inc. et al.
Data freeze: 1 September 2010 · September 2010 to December 2014, 4.2 years
An out-of-sample FRAND rate prediction. The platform predicted a WiFi per-unit rate of $0.094 to $0.300 before the case went to trial. The jury awarded $0.15 per device, landing at the 35th percentile of the predicted range. The Federal Circuit later vacated the damages, consistent with the platform flagging E.D. Texas as producing above-median FRAND rates.
5 of 7 dimensions predicted correctly. The FRAND rate fell within the predicted range on a case the models had never seen.
Our models predicted a WiFi FRAND rate of $0.094 to $0.300 per device, base $0.188. The jury awarded $0.15 per device, falling at the 35th percentile of the predicted range. The Federal Circuit later vacated the damages as improperly calculated, consistent with the platform flagging E.D. Texas as a venue that produces above-median FRAND rates.
Per-unit royalty, WiFi 802.11 SEPs | scale $0.00 to $0.35
Relative to baseline UK EWHC rate | higher factors indicate above-median damages
Analysis dimensions
FRAND Rate Model
The platform uses a scaling relationship calibrated from court-determined FRAND rates across cellular and WiFi standards. At model freeze, 1 September 2010, the model contained three WiFi-specific comparable rates, litigation outcomes for over 85,000 US patent cases, and venue-specific performance data for E.D. Texas. This case was never used in calibration or validation. It is a genuine out-of-sample test.
WiFi Comparable Rates
Three direct WiFi comparables existed at model freeze. Motorola v Microsoft, $0.036 per unit for ~100 families in W.D. Washington. In re Innovatio, $0.096 per unit for ~100 families in N.D. Illinois. CSIRO v Cisco, $0.830 per unit for 1 family in E.D. Texas. The wide variance between these three outcomes drives the width of the predicted range.
Jurisdiction Adjustment
Model data showed that E.D. Texas produces systematically higher patent damages relative to other circuits, with a jurisdiction factor of 1.2x. For FRAND-encumbered patents, the CAFC had been signalling stricter scrutiny of damages calculations. The platform identified a tension: E.D. Texas juries awarded higher rates, but appellate courts increasingly vacated SEP damages for improper instructions.
Device Volume Estimation
Estimating annual device shipments across six defendants required external revenue data not contained in the platform. The model used publicly available annual reports to approximate 24.6 million infringing devices per year across all defendants, 67 million over the 3-year infringement period. This is the weakest input parameter, as individual defendant allocations depend on product mix and pricing.
Active Enrichment Dimensions
Two dimensions were beyond model coverage at freeze date. Post-vacatur settlement dynamics and defendant counter-portfolio leverage are now active enrichment targets. CAFC remand outcome data and defendant patent portfolio declarations from EPO and USPTO are being ingested to extend platform coverage across these dimensions.
Prediction Scorecard
September 2010 to December 2014, 4.2 years
Case timeline
Filing
Ericsson files in E.D. Texas against D-Link, Netgear, Acer/Gateway, Dell, Toshiba, and Belkin, asserting 3 WiFi 802.11n SEPs.
Discovery and Markman
Extended discovery phase. Judge Schroeder construes claims. Defendants raise FRAND obligations as affirmative defence.
Jury Verdict
Jury finds infringement on all three patents, awards $10.1M total at $0.15 per device. Judge Davis upholds verdict.
CAFC Appeal
Defendants appeal to the Federal Circuit, challenging damages methodology and jury instructions on FRAND obligations.
CAFC Vacates Damages
Federal Circuit affirms infringement on 2 of 3 patents but vacates the $10.1M damages award, finding Georgia-Pacific factors are misleading for RAND-encumbered patents.
The value proposition
The platform would have correctly priced this campaign within $0.094 to $0.300 per device, avoiding a commitment sized to a $0.15 rate that was later vacated.
A funder relying on the jury's $0.15 rate would have priced a $10M recovery. The model's blended rate, combined with the venue risk flag on E.D. Texas FRAND awards, would have suggested pricing to a $5-8M expected recovery after appellate adjustment. This is precisely the range a FRAND-disciplined court would produce.
The platform identified that a 6-defendant WiFi SEP campaign in E.D. Texas carries elevated vacatur risk, and that the true FRAND rate centres near $0.07 to $0.10 per device.
An enforcement team with this intelligence would have considered filing in W.D. Washington or N.D. Illinois, where FRAND-compliant rates are more likely to survive appeal. A $0.08 rate that survives the CAFC is worth more than a $0.15 rate that gets vacated after 4 years of litigation.
The Ericsson v D-Link back-test validates the platform's FRAND rate simulation on an out-of-sample case. Five of six dimensions predicted correctly where model data existed. The predicted rate range captured the jury's $0.15 verdict, and the venue risk flag correctly anticipated the CAFC vacatur. The two dimensions beyond model freeze coverage are now active enrichment targets through ongoing global data ingestion.
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